Blowline Data · Custom models
Sample document with fictional data
Gray whale sighting probability
Seasonal model for Ballena Azul Tours and reference Pacific destinations
1Summary
In Bahía Magdalena the probability of seeing a gray whale is above 80% from December to April and practically zero from June to October. When the client's season ends, in May, Monterey and the San Juan Islands are still at their best, because the same whales pass through on their way north. That opens the door to working with northern operators instead of competing for the same traveler in the same month.
Figure 1. Sighting probability by destination and month
Estimated share of trips with at least one gray whale sighting.
Swipe to see every month →
| Destination | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bahía Magdalena (client) | 88 | 96 | 95 | 84 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 81 |
| Laguna San Ignacio | 85 | 95 | 94 | 70 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 60 |
| Monterey Bay | 45 | 40 | 50 | 62 | 55 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 30 |
| San Juan Islands | 2 | 4 | 35 | 58 | 52 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2What it helps decide
| Period | Action |
|---|---|
| December to April | Own high season: add crew and local marketing, and open bookings early. |
| May | Own season ends while the north is still strong: promote combined trips with Monterey and the San Juan Islands. |
| June to November | No gray whales anywhere in the region: boat maintenance and guide training. |
3How it was calculated
The model combines the operator's own sighting history with each destination's seasonal patterns as recorded in Blowline's database, which covers 85 destinations with a monthly calendar per species. This sample uses made-up values, not data from any real operator.
A real model needs at least two or three seasons of the operator's own data, and when the history is short it says so: every estimate comes with its margin of error.